Can People Predict Chaotic Sequences?

Previous studies suggesting that people predict chaotic sequences better than chance have not discriminated between sensitivity to nonlinear determinism and facilitation using autocorrelation. Since prediction accuracy declines with increases in the look-ahead window in both cases, a decline in prediction accuracy does not imply chaos sensitivity. To overcome this problem, phase-randomized surrogate time series are used as a control. Such series have the same linear properties as the original chaotic sequence but contain no nonlinear determinism, i.e. chaos. In the experimental task, using a chaotic Hénon attractor, participants viewed the previous eight days temperatures and then predicted temperatures for the next four days, over 120 trials. The control group experienced a sample from a corresponding phase-randomized surrogate series. Both time series were linearly transformed to provide a realistic temperature range. A transformation of the correlation between observed and predicted values decreased over days for the chaotic time series, but remained constant and high for the surrogate series. The interaction between the days and series factors was statistically significant, suggesting that people are sensitive to chaos, even when the autocorrelation functions and power spectra of the control and experimental series are identical. Implications for the psychological assessment of individual differences in human prediction are discussed.     

中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9×10⁵m³,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型提高了5.34%。     

地震预报的新途径--加卸载响应比理论

从力学角度看,地震的孕育过程实质上是孕震区介质的损伤演化过程,这个过程主要是一个力学过程．但解决与地震预测有关的力学问题与工程中的力学问题有许多不同之处．通常力学问题的解决需要知道其本构关系、边界条件、初始条件以及某些力学量的变化历史(如流变)．但是在地震孕育过程中它们却是未知的或不完全知道的．人们知道的只是地壳中某些物理量的变化．由此提出了加卸载响应比作为一种地震预测的新途径,并简述了加卸载响应比的基本概念、实际应用及一些最新结果．     

Noise radiated by a non-isothermal, temporal mixing layer

The ability of Lighthill's analogy to predict the sound radiated by a transitional mixing layer is evaluated by means of direct numerical simulation (DNS). The specific case of low Mach number flows with density variations is investigated. In order to limit the global computational cost, the acoustic source information is based on numerical results where the sound waves have been removed. It is shown that the low Mach number approximation coupled with the acoustic analogy can lead to very accurate predictions for the radiated sound if the acoustic sources in Lighthill's equation are taken into account carefully. Results for the acoustic intensity deduced from a repeated use of the Lighthill's analogy over a wide range of Mach numbers allow us to discuss the adequacy of scaling laws proposed by previous authors (J. Sound Vib. 28(3), 563–585, 1973; 31(4), 391–397, 1973; 48(1), 95–111, 1976) for the prediction of noise from hot jets.     

Nonlinear analysis of near-wall turbulence time series

We present the results of the nonlinear analysis of a near-wall turbulence signal, measured using a Laser Doppler Anemometer. Despite being preliminary in part, the results highlight some interesting aspects of the dynamics of coherent structures. Careful reconstruction of the dynamics from the scalar time series highlight particular phases of the bursting cycle, corresponding to the VITA detections, immersed in the overall high-dimension dynamics: the possibility to distinguish these trajectories in the embedding space provides indications for conditional sampling techniques on the reconstructed attractor. The application of nonlinear prediction to a system of high-dimension produces forecasts of rapidly decreasing quality over time, with no consequences for practical applications. Much more interesting instead is the analysis of the forecast errors for very short forecast intervals, where we observed a greater difficulty to predict the beginning of coherent structure instability probably due to the quasi-random forcing of the outer flow.     

原位TiC颗粒增强灰铸铁复合材料的组织及其摩擦磨损性能

采用原位反应铸造法制备了TiC颗粒增强灰铸铁复合材料,并考察了复合材料的组织、力学性能和摩擦磨损性能．结果表明：随着合金熔体中Ti含量增加,复合材料中TiC颗粒的数量增加,尺寸减小,而石墨的数量降低,且其形态由片状转化为点状;含有大量TiC颗粒及少量点状石墨的复合材料的力学性能和耐磨性优良,即使在较高载荷下,复合材料中的TiC颗粒和点状石墨仍具有协同减摩抗磨作用,从而使得复合材料的摩擦磨损性能优于普通灰铸铁．     

一种考虑拉伸保持效应的多轴疲劳寿命模型

通过定义考虑拉伸保载效应的CFI因子(creep-fatigue interaction factor)，将拉伸蠕变损伤和疲劳损伤进行非线性耦合. 根据断裂实验的观察，针对拉伸主 导的裂纹萌生、扩展及破坏的多轴疲劳问题，给出了一个基于临界面方法的能量型高温多轴 疲劳寿命预测模型. 所给出的模型可对不同温度、不同载荷特点、不同保载时间的多轴疲劳 寿命进行预测，模型的材料参数不依赖于温度和载荷. 并且此方法可以很方便地推广到其它 因素主导破坏的高温多轴疲劳寿命预测. 通过拟合高温合金Udimet720Li单轴带保持时间的 低循环疲劳(low cycle fatigue, LCF)寿命试验数据，得到了材料常数. 结合黏 塑性有限元分析方法，对高温双轴带保载循环载荷下Cruciform试件的寿命进行了 预测，预测结果基本落在2倍分散带内，达到工程的要求，证明了该模型的有效性.     

Comparison of different zero-slip definitions and a proposal to standardize tire traction performance

The traction properties of agricultural tires are of special importance because the tractive efficiency varies in a wide range to a maximum in the order of 75%. Different single wheel testing equipment is used to investigate tire performance and different mathematical methods are used to process the measured data. The different zero-slip definitions complicate a comparison between the measured data. In the paper the consequences of these differences are shown. For traction prediction it is necessary to make different measured and calculated data comparable so that all these data can be used for modelling tire behaviour. Therefore in this paper an effort to standardize tire traction performance is made.     

EAST上由垂直不稳定性引发破裂的分析与预测

从EAST 装置2016 年的放电实验中，选取了119 次等离子体破裂放电数据，分析诱发等离子体破裂的原因，发现约60%的破裂是由垂直不稳定性直接引起的，其破裂后将会产生更大的晕电流，从而产生更大的电磁应力损坏装置。对由垂直不稳定性引起的破裂(简称为VID)(72 次放电)进行了研究，建立了分别基于单变量(垂直位移)和两维变量(垂直位移、垂直位移增长率)的预测模型用于对VID 破裂的预测。离线测试表明，基于两维变量的预测模型可以在破裂发生前20ms 给出破裂预警信号，预测成功率达93%。     

Hierarchically Structured Allotropes of Phosphorus from Data-Driven Exploration

The discovery of materials is increasingly guided by quantum-mechanical crystal-structure prediction, but the structural complexity in bulk and nanoscale materials remains a bottleneck. Here we demonstrate how data-driven approaches can vastly accelerate the search for complex structures, combining a machine-learning (ML) model for the potential-energy surface with efficient, fragment-based searching. We use the characteristic building units observed in Hittorf's and fibrous phosphorus to seed stochastic (“random”) structure searches over hundreds of thousands of runs. Our study identifies a family of hierarchically structured allotropes based on a P8 cage as principal building unit, including one-dimensional (1D) single and double helix structures, nanowires, and two-dimensional (2D) phosphorene allotropes with square-lattice and kagome topologies. These findings yield new insight into the intriguingly diverse structural chemistry of phosphorus, and they provide an example for how ML methods may, in the long run, be expected to accelerate the discovery of hierarchical nanostructures.